Over 60 days have passed since the fall of Bashar al-Assad, his family ruled Syria for decades and now Syrians are feeling a mix of optimism and apprehension.
What led to Assad’s demise?
On the 27th of November last year rebels based in Idlib in Northern Syria launched a major offensive. On the 1st of December they took Aleppo, Syria’s second largest city, with minimal bloodshed. This unprecedented achievement shocked the world, securing in four days a city that had previously been under siege for years. The rebels continued advancing southwards, and took the city of Homs. By the 8th of December rebel flags flew above Damascus, Syria’s capital city, and Assad had fled the country.
What made this lightning offensive possible after years of stalemate? The largest rebel group in the North, Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), spent its time organising with other rebel groups into a disciplined and effective fighting force. Its leadership recognised an opportunity to strike when Assad’s international allies, Russia, Iran, and Hezbollah, were weakened and distracted by foreign wars. The regime army was largely made up of conscripts tired from years of war and uninspired by corrupt leadership and stagnant living conditions. Many soldiers fled their positions before HTS arrived, their abandoned uniforms littering the streets as they ran.
After the Fall
Following the news of Assad’s flight, many Syrians around the world took to the streets to celebrate. The regime had ruled Syria oppressively since 1971 and anyone who spoke against them risked being taken by security services without warning. Once the regime fell, the opposition entered the infamous Sednaya Prison where tens of thousands of people were detained and killed. Family members searched through documents and photographs to find out what happened to their missing loved ones. The regime’s atrocities were laid bare by prisoners released from detention centres, some of whom had been imprisoned for decades. They told of unimaginable torture and murder, giving us a harrowing reminder of why protests first began in 2011.
The fall of Assad is a source of optimism but there is also apprehension following the rapid change in leadership. Assad was part of the Alawite sect of Shia Islam and garnered legitimacy from claiming to protect other minorities from the Sunni Muslim majority. HTS began as an Al Qaeda offshoot and remains designated as a terrorist group by the UN. There have been concerns the group will persecute Women and non-Sunnis as ISIS has done. The leader of HTS, Mohammad al-Jolani, has denounced their terrorist past and attempted to reassure Syria’s Women and minorities, including Christians, Druze, and Shia that they will not be harmed. But, only concrete action will be enough to truly dismiss doubts about Syria’s new de facto leadership.
On the ground, Syrians face a daily struggle to survive. 90% of the population still lives in poverty due to an economy and infrastructure decimated by war. Compounding the issue are sanctions imposed by the West against the Assad regime that still largely remain. So far, HTS has proven to be competent administrators although their capacity is severely stretched. The rebels have learnt from the years spent ruling Idlib, but governing all of Syria is a much greater challenge.
What is going on now?
HTS is now the de facto government in Syria. Its leader, Mohammad al-Jolani, assumed his birth name, Ahmed al-Sharaa, and is acting as the country’s leader. An interim Prime Minister and heads of departments were appointed, largely from the rebel leadership, including two women. Al-Sharaa warned it could take up to four years before the country can have elections, citing the need to rebuild a legal apparatus and draft a new constitution.
The new leadership promised to govern Syria for all Syrians regardless of ethnicity or religion. But simmering tensions remain and security is an ongoing issue. There has been targeted violence against minorities, deaths caused by remaining landmines, murders, and extrajudicial killings of Assadist officers. In an effort to maintain control, the government is attempting to disarm the country’s many factions and bring them under a unified Department of Defence. But there remains resistance from a few remnants of the old regime. This paints a complex picture of an ongoing struggle to maintain security in Syria.
International Actors and Conflict
International actors continue to threaten the fragile peace in Syria. Israel launched incursions into Southern Syria and bombed several strategic sites across the country. This is to secure its grip on the strategically important Golan Heights, a water source overlooking Damascus that has been occupied by Israel since 1967. Deadly airstrikes have been carried out, and the Israeli army has established several military checkpoints, undermining stability in Syria.
Oil-rich North Eastern Syria is still controlled by the American-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), mainly made up of Kurdish fighters. The SDF is a paramilitary group that fought against ISIS and Assad but haven’t merged with the new government. Türkiye views it as a terrorist organisation aligned with the PKK, a militant Kurdish group that has been fighting with Türkiye for decades. As a result, there has been fierce fighting between the Turkish-backed SNA and the SDF in Northern Syria, including Turkish airstrikes. Al Sharaa has called on the SDF to merge with the Department of Defence.
Any escalation in fighting risks plunging Syria back into war. Managing these conflicts is of immediate importance for the new leadership if they hope to bring lasting peace.
Diplomacy
Both Ahmed Al-Sharaa and Syria’s new Foreign Minister Asaad al-Shaibani have been busy meeting foreign delegations including Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Jordan, the UAE, Lebanon, the UK, the US, Germany, and France. The goal of talks is to legitimise the new regime, ask for financial aid, and call for lifting sanctions. So far there is a 6 month pause on restrictions on essential imports, and the US lifted a $10 million bounty on Al-Sharaa’s head. However, the designation of HTS as a terrorist group and the majority of sanctions will remain until Western powers are satisfied with protections for women’s and minority rights. This will continue to restrict access to humanitarian aid for Syrians and hamper efforts to rebuild.
Conclusion
Although there are monumental challenges facing Syria, for the first time in 14 years of horror there is finally hope and opportunity. At Action Syria, we are ready to roll up our sleeves and work with Syrian communities to build a country where they may finally live in peace.
Written by: Saami Tajeddin
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