6 months have passed since the fall of Bashar al Assad after an extraordinary offensive led by the rebel group Hayat Tahrir al Sham (HTS). It is baffling to think such a short time has elapsed given the historic meeting between US President Donald Trump and his Syrian counterpart Ahmad Al Sharaa in May. This marked the first meeting of the two countries’ heads of state in 25 years, made even more incredible because 6 months ago Sharaa was a rebel leader and designated terrorist with a $10 million bounty on his head. Following the meeting, the US announced the ending of Assad era sanctions representing the latest positive step towards national renewal. But the road to peace has also proven to be fraught and volatile, scenes of suffering are ongoing as Syria transitions after 14 years of civil war.
At Action Syria we are committed to supporting Syrian civil society during this critical phase of renewal. Now 6 months after the fall of Assad, we can reflect on how Syria has changed and the challenges it continues to face.
Governance
In March significant steps were taken towards unifying Syria’s disparate armed factions when the commander of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) agreed to merge with the Syrian state. The SDF is a majority Kurdish group that controls large swathes of territory in North East Syria. The agreement stipulates the full integration of military and civilian structures, and constitutional guarantees for the rights of all minority groups. Two months on from the agreement and both sides have respected the agreed ceasefire and taken gradual steps towards integration. That said, tensions remain such as the delayed handing over of the strategically important Tishreen Dam controlled by the SDF. It is essential that the merger goes ahead to prevent deepening division that might threaten Syria’s fragile peace.
In the same month the transitional government ratified a temporary Syrian constitution for a 5-year transitional period. It established the role of the presidency, a people’s assembly to make legislation, and enshrines the separation of powers, women’s rights, and freedom of expression. This brings a degree of stability and clarity but also raises significant questions. For example, two thirds of the people’s assembly’s 100 members are appointed by committee and one third by the transitional President. This shows a clear lack of democratic processes and makes it practically difficult for the assembly to hold the President to account. The constitution also stipulates the President must be a Muslim and cites Islamic jurisprudence as the main source of legislation. This is contentious because it side lines Syrian Christians but also disappoints Sharaa’s hardline Islamist allies who would prefer a strict interpretation of sharia law. Following the 5-year transitional period there is expected to be a democratic process but many fear this is too long for a country desperate for change.
The transitional government also appointed its interim cabinet made up of technocrats and rebel leaders. The group has representatives from all major Syrian religious sects and ethnicities and includes one Christian Woman as the Minister of Labour and Social Affairs. The line-up has been criticised for prioritising Sharaa’s closest allies in prominent government departments and for not representing the full spectrum of Syrian society. Civil society must be supported to hold the government to its commitment to democracy so that Syria can have the inclusive government it deserves.
Foreign Policy and Economy
Over the last 6 months Ahmed Al Sharaa and the Foreign minister Assad Al Shaibani have worked tirelessly to strengthen diplomatic ties. Examples of their successes include securing financial support from Saudi Arabia and Qatar, a meeting between Sharaa and French President Emmanuel Macron in Paris, and the new 3 starred Syrian flag being raised at the UN. As previously mentioned, the transitional President’s meeting with Donald Trump and the subsequent lifting of US sanctions on Syria is a seismic shift. The EU followed suit and ceased their sanctions programme shortly after Trump’s announcement. The Syrian economy needs revitalising because it has contracted by between 50-83% since 2010 according to World Bank estimates. Ending Sanctions is a great victory for the new government as it will facilitate trade and foreign investment to help fund Syria’s reconstruction and economic recovery.
The government’s diplomatic efforts have proven fruitful, but the country will take time to turn itself around. Economic recovery is desperately needed on the ground where 90% of Syrians remain in poverty. The provision of public services, including access to water and electricity, have worsened since the change in government. Many public sector employees have been sent home and there is a continued lack of employment opportunities for young people. Underlying such issues is a lack of finances, the government only has $200 million in foreign exchange reserves, compared to $18.5billion before the war. Saudi Arabia and Qatar recently offered financial support for Syrian state employees and a Qatari-led consortium signed a $7billion energy agreement promising some relief for Syria’s creaking economy. However, the government has been criticised for lacking transparency and for failing to include more stakeholders in economic decision making. Such an approach creates uncertainty and risk compounding an already desperate situation. Civil society must be acknowledged and included in order to promote long term economy recovery.
Security
Over this transitional period Syria has seen many dark days. Sectarian tensions in some areas remain extremely high, weapons are still widespread among the population, and the new security forces are struggling to maintain order. The world was horrified by violence in coastal areas in early March where 1700 civilian were killed. Bloodshed began when pro-Assad militias ambushed members of the security forces which rapidly escalated into days of massacres against Alawites. Groups and individuals aligned with the new government have been implicated in the killings including foreign jihadists. The Alawites are an offshoot sect of Shia Islam making up 13% of the Syrian population. Because the Assad family are Alawites they are closely associated with the old regime and so became targets for revenge killings. The chaos was eventually ceased by security forces, and the transitional President has promised justice, giving 3 months for a committee to investigate the killings.
Sectarian violence erupted again in May in Southern Syria after an audio clip circulated allegedly featuring a Druze cleric criticising Islam’s Prophet Muhammad. The cleric denied the voice was his and the clip was later falsified. Nevertheless, outraged Sunni groups clashed with Druze militias leading to over 100 deaths. The Druze are another religious sect that famously believe in reincarnation. The situation was exacerbated by Israeli airstrikes in the area justified by the Israeli government’s claim to be a protector of the Druze. Israel has continued to occupy land in Southern Syria and bombard locations throughout the country. The violence ended with an agreement between the government and Druze forces, but tensions remain high. Many of Syria’s minorities remain sceptical of the government’s commitment to their security.
Ongoing sectarian violence demonstrates the desperate need for transitional justice to establish truth and accountability for victims of the civil war. Only an official process can hope to address the grievances of thousands of Syrians and start to heal deeply entrenched divisions. The transitional government has paid lip service to transitional justice but has so far failed to put forward a comprehensive plan for the process.
Conclusion
In the past 6 months we have glimpsed the winding road Syria is on, characterised by astounding political and diplomatic successes as well as devastating tragedies. In their daily lives Syrian communities still face an uncertain security situation, inadequate public services and an economy in tatters. Yet their resilience remains unbroken, and we hope with time and opportunity Syria will flourish again.
At Action Syria we are committed to serving Syrian communities and making sure that essential services are provided in the absence of functioning infrastructure. We are also resolute in our support for a strong Syrian civil society and their calls for democracy, inclusivity, and justice. No matter how long the road is, we will work in solidarity with the Syrian people throughout this transitional period and beyond.
Written By Saami Tajeddin
About the Author
Saami is a British Syrian writer with a BSc in politics and international relations from Bath University. He specialises in international security, Middle Eastern politics, and international migration. He has worked with charities in the UK, Greece, and Lebanon. He recently returned to Syria for the first time in 15 years, his next article recounts this experience to highlight what life is really like in Syria today.
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